A 14-day Prophet forecast turns reported cost into an expected range. Inspect the next two weeks and the daily spikes or drops that need attention.
Source
FOCUS 1.0 sample
Measure
Effective Usage cost · USD
Results
Precomputed
Mode
Offline Prophet
Data through (UTC)
2026-03-31
AWS uses its own captured charge days. Actuals through 2026-03-30 UTC.
Forecast
Precomputed Effective Usage cost in USD, with daily expected ranges.
AWS · actuals and 14-day forecast
Light shading shows the 95% range; darker shading shows 80%. The divider marks the last actual on 2026-03-30. Coral markers flag daily spikes and drops outside the 95% range.
Show data (44 rows)
AWS · actuals and 14-day forecast
Day
Actual cost
Expected cost
Forecast cost
Lower95 cost
Upper95 cost
Lower80 cost
Upper80 cost
Anomaly
2026-03-01
$12.04
$0.00
–
$0.00
$12.43
$0.00
$1.11
–
2026-03-02
$7.00
$0.75
–
$0.00
$38.62
$0.00
$25.92
–
2026-03-03
$15.20
$17.73
–
$0.00
$56.54
$0.00
$41.70
–
2026-03-04
$8.00
$18.42
–
$0.00
$56.24
$0.00
$44.07
–
2026-03-05
$10.00
$19.99
–
$0.00
$60.93
$0.00
$46.26
–
2026-03-06
$10.00
$15.06
–
$0.00
$51.11
$0.00
$39.34
–
2026-03-07
$0.00
$0.00
–
$0.00
$38.40
$0.00
$24.17
–
2026-03-08
$0.00
$1.57
–
$0.00
$37.84
$0.00
$26.66
–
2026-03-09
$26.00
$27.40
–
$0.00
$62.95
$3.01
$51.88
–
2026-03-10
$17.00
$44.39
–
$5.93
$83.44
$19.40
$70.76
–
2026-03-11
$22.88
$45.07
–
$7.54
$83.78
$20.53
$71.18
–
2026-03-12
$52.00
$46.64
–
$8.99
$82.92
$22.38
$71.35
–
2026-03-13
$41.00
$41.71
–
$3.06
$79.53
$16.26
$67.50
–
2026-03-14
$59.60
$26.06
–
$0.00
$64.21
$0.00
$51.95
–
2026-03-15
$36.00
$28.22
–
$0.00
$66.24
$5.23
$52.75
–
2026-03-16
$63.00
$54.06
–
$14.85
$90.27
$27.93
$77.67
–
2026-03-17
$42.00
$71.04
–
$34.08
$113.68
$44.86
$96.72
–
2026-03-18
$83.00
$71.72
–
$32.42
$113.55
$46.23
$96.77
–
2026-03-19
$63.00
$73.29
–
$32.36
$109.49
$48.16
$97.07
–
2026-03-20
$65.20
$68.36
–
$30.06
$105.81
$41.75
$91.95
–
2026-03-21
$39.20
$52.71
–
$15.27
$87.90
$27.05
$76.37
–
2026-03-22
$26.00
$54.87
–
$15.49
$93.22
$29.30
$79.80
–
2026-03-23
$68.00
$80.71
–
$41.60
$119.99
$55.31
$104.67
–
2026-03-24
$140.00
$97.69
–
$60.59
$135.55
$73.51
$123.47
spike
2026-03-25
$139.00
$98.37
–
$61.66
$134.80
$73.92
$124.46
spike
2026-03-26
$97.00
$99.95
–
$61.68
$137.65
$74.53
$123.21
–
2026-03-27
$117.00
$95.01
–
$57.20
$131.74
$69.93
$118.99
–
2026-03-28
$53.00
$79.36
–
$40.58
$117.32
$52.57
$103.64
–
2026-03-29
$64.00
$81.53
–
$41.97
$125.00
$56.08
$106.42
–
2026-03-30
$117.20
$107.36
$107.36
$71.47
$147.14
$83.83
$133.65
–
2026-03-31
–
$124.34
$124.34
$82.95
$164.34
$98.78
$148.68
–
2026-04-01
–
$125.03
$125.03
$83.91
$164.63
$99.34
$148.83
–
2026-04-02
–
$126.60
$126.60
$90.27
$167.15
$100.15
$152.00
–
2026-04-03
–
$121.66
$121.66
$77.35
$157.99
$93.09
$145.26
–
2026-04-04
–
$106.01
$106.01
$67.62
$144.06
$81.77
$130.02
–
2026-04-05
–
$108.18
$108.18
$73.56
$145.14
$84.24
$133.82
–
2026-04-06
–
$134.01
$134.01
$94.46
$174.56
$109.27
$159.15
–
2026-04-07
–
$151.00
$151.00
$113.85
$189.31
$126.60
$174.15
–
2026-04-08
–
$151.68
$151.68
$112.71
$190.76
$127.46
$177.09
–
2026-04-09
–
$153.25
$153.25
$115.35
$190.14
$128.39
$178.51
–
2026-04-10
–
$148.32
$148.32
$112.07
$183.40
$124.29
$173.26
–
2026-04-11
–
$132.67
$132.67
$95.43
$172.39
$108.54
$158.89
–
2026-04-12
–
$134.83
$134.83
$97.26
$172.62
$110.89
$159.59
–
2026-04-13
–
$160.66
$160.66
$123.41
$199.32
$134.42
$185.42
–
44 rows. Scroll inside the table to see more.
Projected 14-day Usage cost
$1,878.242026-03-31 → 2026-04-13 UTC
95% projected total range
$1,727.48 – $2,027.62Range for the sum of forecast days
Flagged days
2Observed cost outside the 95% expected range
Holdout RMSE
$40.797 observed days in the final-week backtest
Anomalies · AWS
AWS daily anomaly flags (USD)
Day
Actual
Expected
Expected low (95%)
Expected high (95%)
Deviation
Severity
Direction
2026-03-24
$140.00
$97.69
$60.59
$135.55
$42.31
0.06
spike
2026-03-25
$139.00
$98.37
$61.66
$134.80
$40.63
0.06
spike
2 rows. Scroll inside the table to see more.
Model card · AWS
AWS Prophet model configuration
Setting
Value
Training window (UTC)
2026-03-01 → 2026-03-30
Observed / unknown days
30 / 0
Training / display grain
daily / daily
Horizon / intervals
14 days / 95% and 80%
Engine / growth / seasonality mode
Prophet 1.1.7 / linear / additive
Daily / weekly / yearly seasonality
Off / On / Off
Changepoint / seasonality / holiday prior scales
0.05 / 1 / 0.1
Changepoints / predictive draws / seed
5 / 1000 / 42
Known events / MCMC samples
No event calendar applied / 0
Prediction floor
$0.00
Holdout window (UTC)
2026-03-24 → 2026-03-30
Holdout MAPE
30.33% (7 nonzero days)
95% / 80% holdout coverage
42.86% / 28.57%
13 rows. Scroll inside the table to see more.
Compare backtest candidates
AWS final-week candidate comparison; costs in USD
Candidate
RMSE
MAPE
95% coverage
80% coverage
daily, flat, weekly off
$77.45
63.74%
28.57%
28.57%
daily, linear, weekly on
$40.79
30.33%
42.86%
28.57%
hourly, linear, weekly on
$40.96
32.03%
28.57%
0%
3 rows. Scroll inside the table to see more.
How the forecast flags anomalies
Each day has an expected cost and an expected range. When observed cost rises above the 95% range, the forecast flags a spike. When it falls below the range, it flags a drop. Coral markers locate those days on the chart; the table gives the actual cost, expected cost and deviation.
The 95% band is wider and produces fewer alerts. The 80% band is tighter and brings changes into view earlier. Severity measures the distance beyond the 95% band divided by that band’s width: a value of 1 means the point is one full band width past the boundary.
Use spikes to investigate runaway resources and unexpected billing events. Use drops to check failed jobs, stopped workloads and lost data feeds. Compare each flag with deployment records and known business events to decide what needs action.
Score new data daily against the forecast band. Alert on consecutive breaches, route the alert to the service owner and re-fit regularly. Add known holidays or planned events as model inputs; use regressors for predictable changes in workload so the team can focus on unexplained movement.